What was found?
The research has given City of Melbourne a much better understanding of how best to plan for future flooding.
While not definitive, the project has given the council some valuable insights. Among them are:
- Retreat is not necessary;
- Even if no protective works were undertaken, it would still be cost effective to continue to occupy the area;
- Measures should be taken to "accommodate" flooding; and
- "Moderate" protective options are available now but a better return on investment would be achieved by waiting until the flooding gets worse.
As an economic study, it considered the costs and benefits only in relation to the 158 hectares in the actual study zone.
Of course, flood waters don't stop at arbitrary lines drawn on maps more accurate costs and benefits would have been generated if the entire affected catchment was examined.
It was concluded that more information would be needed if a more highly accurate understanding of the economic benefits of protective works was required.
The process of being involved in the study revealed that suitable governance structures need to evolve to ensure a co-ordinated response to flooding.
Many of the potential "adaptations" examined within the study are actually outside of the control of the City of Melbourne and council has worked well with the responsible authorities.
The City of Melbourne will continue to work in partnership with federal and state agencies to get the best outcomes for its community.
The study found that the cost of flooding in the study area could increase from $3 million per year (currently) to more than $19.5 million per annum by 2100.
But by 2100, the predicted economic benefits of occupying the case study area far outweigh the potential damages bill ($768 million compared with $19.5 million) so there is no suggestion of retreat from the area.
The study found that nearly all of the "adaptation pathways" considered for Southbank were economically viable.
However, the favoured option suggests that actions aimed at making the community more resilient to flooding should be undertaken now before some "moderate adaptations" are undertaken in the future.
